Using a Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model to Examine Alternative Timing and Duration of the COVID-19 Lockdown in Kuwait: What Can Be Done Now?

Archives of Public Health

This article studies the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. The model shows that a 90-day lockdown that commences 10 days before the epidemic peak is optimal. A more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.

Journal Article